Emerging Market Carry Trades Surge in 2026 as Currencies Hit Multi-Year Highs
Emerging market carry trades have gained 1.3% in 2026, building on their 18% surge in 2023—the strongest performance since 2009. A Bloomberg index tracking eight developing-nation currencies now hovers NEAR 291, just 5% below its 2011 peak. The South African rand and Colombian peso are among currencies trading at multi-year highs.
Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Citigroup analysts anticipate sustained momentum, citing elevated real interest rates across emerging economies. "We target countries with tight monetary policy and credible central banks," says Morgan Stanley's James Lord, highlighting Brazil's real, Turkey's lira, and the Czech koruna as top picks. Latin American currencies are particularly outperforming.